Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.