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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 30.5% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Sutton United |
41.25% ( -0.05) | 28.24% ( -0) | 30.5% ( 0.05) |
Both teams to score 46.06% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.07% ( 0.03) | 59.93% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.82% ( 0.02) | 80.18% ( -0.02) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.43% ( -0.02) | 28.57% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.63% ( -0.02) | 64.36% ( 0.02) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.48% ( 0.06) | 35.52% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.71% ( 0.06) | 72.28% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Sutton United |
1-0 @ 12.71% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.24% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.96% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.44% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 1.67% Total : 41.25% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.23% | 0-1 @ 10.5% 1-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0) Other @ 2.05% Total : 30.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 91 | 44 | 47 | 89 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 44 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 87 | 45 | 42 | 82 |
P | Wrexham | 44 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 84 | 51 | 33 | 82 |
4 | MK Dons | 44 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 74 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 68 | 61 | 7 | 70 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 43 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 68 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 44 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 66 |
8 | Walsall | 44 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 66 | 65 | 1 | 65 |
9 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 43 | 19 | 7 | 17 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 64 |
10 | Gillingham | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 63 |
11 | AFC Wimbledon | 44 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 62 |
12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 44 | 17 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 62 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 60 |
14 | Notts County | 44 | 17 | 7 | 20 | 88 | 85 | 3 | 58 |
15 | Morecambe | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 63 | 76 | -13 | 57 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 44 | 16 | 7 | 21 | 61 | 71 | -10 | 55 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 44 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 54 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 44 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 74 | 78 | -4 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 44 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 63 | 80 | -17 | 47 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 44 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 55 | 72 | -17 | 46 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 43 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 44 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 53 | 78 | -25 | 40 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 44 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 41 | 77 | -36 | 36 |
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