Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 41.31%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 2-1 (7.91%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.