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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 38.41%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Northampton Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
38.41% | 26.36% | 35.22% |
Both teams to score 52.92% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.19% | 51.8% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.43% | 73.57% |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.68% | 26.32% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.55% | 61.45% |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.82% | 28.18% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.13% | 63.87% |
Score Analysis |
Northampton Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
1-0 @ 9.9% 2-1 @ 8.37% 2-0 @ 6.61% 3-1 @ 3.72% 3-0 @ 2.94% 3-2 @ 2.36% 4-1 @ 1.24% 4-0 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.29% Total : 38.41% | 1-1 @ 12.53% 0-0 @ 7.42% 2-2 @ 5.3% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.35% | 0-1 @ 9.39% 1-2 @ 7.94% 0-2 @ 5.95% 1-3 @ 3.35% 0-3 @ 2.51% 2-3 @ 2.24% 1-4 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.77% Total : 35.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 45 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 76 | 41 | 35 | 94 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 45 | 27 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 37 | 39 | 89 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 45 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 83 | 48 | 35 | 86 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 45 | 25 | 8 | 12 | 86 | 58 | 28 | 83 |
5 | Barnsley | 45 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 81 | 63 | 18 | 75 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 45 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 65 | 38 | 27 | 74 |
7 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 77 | 55 | 22 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 63 | 45 | 18 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 68 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 62 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 62 |
12 | Exeter CityExeter | 45 | 17 | 10 | 18 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 61 |
13 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 45 | 19 | 10 | 16 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 59 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 17 | 8 | 20 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 59 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 45 | 16 | 9 | 20 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 45 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 65 | 68 | -3 | 50 |
18 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 45 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 48 |
19 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 47 |
20 | Burton Albion | 45 | 12 | 10 | 23 | 39 | 64 | -25 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 45 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 45 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 40 |
R | Port Vale | 45 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 40 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 41 | 79 | -38 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |