League One

May 18, 2024 at 4.15pm UK

Wembley Stadium

Bolton
0 - 2
Oxford Utd

Jones (47'), Dempsey (68'), Baxter (72'), Thomason (77')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Murphy (31', 42')
Goodrham (90+8')

The Match

Match Report

Oxford United beat Bolton Wanderers 2-0 at Wembley Stadium to earn promotion to the Championship, ending a 25-year absence.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

Last Game: Bolton 2-3 Barnsley
Tuesday, May 7 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Oxford United

All competitions

Last Game: Peterborough 1-1 Oxford Utd
Wednesday, May 8 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 56.75%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 21.64% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result
Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Oxford United
56.75% ( -0.4)	21.62% ( 0.01)	21.64% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 58.88% (

0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.56% (

0.48)

39.44% (

-0.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.22% (

0.5)

61.78% (

-0.49)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.24% (

0.04)

13.76% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.95% (

0.07)

41.05% (

-0.06)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.27% (

0.64)

31.73% (

-0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.85% (

0.73)

68.16% (

-0.72)

Score Analysis

Bolton Wanderers 56.75%

Oxford United 21.64%

Draw 21.62%

Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Oxford United
2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 3.23% 4-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.4% Total : 56.75%	1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.37% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.62%	1-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.59% Total : 21.64%