Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 17.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 1-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-2 (4.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.