Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Girona had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Osasuna would win this match.