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La Liga

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La Liga | Gameweek 23
Feb 3, 2024 at 1pm UK
Estadio de Mestalla
Almeria

Valencia
2 - 1
Almeria

Duro (14'), Yaremchuk (23')
Yaremchuk (24'), Guerra (25'), Mosquera (62'), Guillamon (73')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Arribas (50')
Garitano (25'), Centelles (61'), Gonzalez (64'), Lozano (72'), Robertone (90+4'), Ramazani (90+4')
Baptistao (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Valencia

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 2-0 Valencia
Sunday, January 28 at 8pm in La Liga

Almeria

All competitions
Last Game: Almeria 0-3 Alaves
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in La Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 57.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 20.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.

Result
ValenciaDrawAlmeria
57.64% (0.889 0.89)22.22% (-0.148 -0.15)20.14% (-0.746 -0.75)
Both teams to score 54.47% (-0.694 -0.69)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.82% (-0.356 -0.36)44.18% (0.353 0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.44% (-0.34699999999999 -0.35)66.56% (0.34399999999999 0.34)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.93% (0.16800000000001 0.17)15.06% (-0.173 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.42% (0.322 0.32)43.58% (-0.326 -0.33)
Almeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.13% (-0.949 -0.95)35.87% (0.945 0.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.35% (-0.985 -0.98)72.65% (0.98099999999999 0.98)
Score Analysis
    Valencia 57.63%
    Almeria 20.14%
    Draw 22.21%
ValenciaDrawAlmeria
1-0 @ 10.22% (0.21 0.21)
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.017000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 9.68% (0.262 0.26)
3-1 @ 6.26% (0.047999999999999 0.05)
3-0 @ 6.11% (0.2 0.2)
3-2 @ 3.21% (-0.059 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.96% (0.04 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.89% (0.112 0.11)
4-2 @ 1.52% (-0.019 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.12% (0.022 0.02)
5-0 @ 1.09% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 57.63%
1-1 @ 10.48% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.4% (0.082 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.09% (-0.124 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.1% (-0.049 -0.05)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.21%
0-1 @ 5.54% (-0.058 -0.06)
1-2 @ 5.38% (-0.164 -0.16)
0-2 @ 2.84% (-0.104 -0.1)
1-3 @ 1.84% (-0.106 -0.11)
2-3 @ 1.74% (-0.089 -0.09)
0-3 @ 0.97% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 20.14%

How you voted: Valencia vs Almeria

Valencia
86.9%
Draw
8.2%
Almeria
4.9%
61
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 6
Almeria
2-2
Valencia
Arribas (59', 69')
Montes (60'), Moreno (78'), Melero (83'), Ramazani (89'), Baptistao (90+11')
Lopez (14'), Guerra (63')
Perez (51'), Diakhaby (86')
> Preview
Apr 9, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 28
Almeria
2-1
Valencia
Melero (49'), Babic (58')
Castillejo (61')
> Preview
Jan 23, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 18
Valencia
2-2
Almeria
Kluivert (48'), Gaya (65')
Chumi (54'), Portillo (74')
> Preview
May 23, 2015 5.30pm
Almeria
2-3
Valencia
Partey (9'), Soriano (37')
Manuel Casado (68'), Silva (75')
Otamendi (28'), Feghouli (45'), Paco (80')
Barragan (34'), Parejo (69'), Feghouli (75'), Gaya (86'), Fuego (92')
Parejo (89')
> Match Report
Jan 17, 2015 5pm
Valencia
3-2
Almeria
Parejo (11'), Rodrigo (28'), Negredo (83')
Orban (57'), De Paul (86')
Hemed (13', 33')
Partey (40'), Dubarbier (81')