Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 46.64%. A win for Girona had a probability of 27.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.