Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 36.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.03%). The likeliest Leganes win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Leganes would win this match.