Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mallorca win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mallorca win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.57%) and 1-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 1-0 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mallorca would win this match.