La Liga
Gameweek
38
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Diego Simeone
45'+1'
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Diego Simeone
45'+1'
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Alexander Sorloth
68'
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Clement Lenglet
87'
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Alexander Sorloth
90'
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Alexander Sorloth
90'+3'
Girona vs Atletico Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Girona had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-0 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result
Girona
26.96%
▲
(+2.19)
Draw
24.37%
▲
(+1.00)
Atletico Madrid
48.66%
▼
(-3.19)
Both Teams to Score:
55.61%
▼
(-1.23)
Goals
Over 2.5
53.43%
▼
(-2.59)
Under 2.5
46.57%
▲
(+2.59)
Over 3.5
31.15%
▼
(-2.48)
Under 3.5
68.84%
▲
(+2.47)
Over 4.5
15.48%
▼
(-1.78)
Under 4.5
84.52%
▲
(+1.78)
Girona Goals
Over 0.5
68.83%
▲
(+0.36)
Under 0.5
31.17%
▼
(-0.37)
Over 1.5
32.5%
▲
(+0.42)
Under 1.5
67.5%
▼
(-0.43)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5
80.79%
▼
(-2.22)
Under 0.5
19.21%
▲
(+2.21)
Over 1.5
49.1%
▼
(-3.78)
Under 1.5
50.89%
▲
(+3.78)
Score analysis
Girona
26.96%
Draw
24.37%
Atletico Madrid
48.66%
Girona
1-0
@
6.98%
▲
(+0.80)
2-1 @ 6.71% ▲ (+0.39)
2-0 @ 4.07% ▲ (+0.50)
3-1 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.18)
3-2 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 1.58% ▲ (+0.21)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 26.96%
2-1 @ 6.71% ▲ (+0.39)
2-0 @ 4.07% ▲ (+0.50)
3-1 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.18)
3-2 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 1.58% ▲ (+0.21)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 26.96%
Draw
1-1
@
11.51%
▲
(+0.55)
0-0 @ 5.99% ▲ (+0.63)
2-2 @ 5.54% ▼ (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.37%
0-0 @ 5.99% ▲ (+0.63)
2-2 @ 5.54% ▼ (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.37%
Atletico Madrid
0-1
@
9.88%
▲
(+0.39)
1-2 @ 9.5% ▼ (-0.22)
0-2 @ 8.15% ▼ (-0.27)
1-3 @ 5.22% ▼ (-0.52)
0-3 @ 4.48% ▼ (-0.50)
2-3 @ 3.05% ▼ (-0.27)
1-4 @ 2.16% ▼ (-0.39)
0-4 @ 1.85% ▼ (-0.36)
2-4 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.22)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 48.66%
1-2 @ 9.5% ▼ (-0.22)
0-2 @ 8.15% ▼ (-0.27)
1-3 @ 5.22% ▼ (-0.52)
0-3 @ 4.48% ▼ (-0.50)
2-3 @ 3.05% ▼ (-0.27)
1-4 @ 2.16% ▼ (-0.39)
0-4 @ 1.85% ▼ (-0.36)
2-4 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.22)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 48.66%