La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 5

Sep 15, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
3 - 0
Valencia

Gallagher (39'), Griezmann (54'), Alvarez (90+4')
Koke (25')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Tarrega (10'), Guillamon (32')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico
Saturday, August 31 at 6pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Valencia

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Valencia 1-1 Villarreal
Saturday, August 31 at 8.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 65.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 13.68%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.72%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Valencia
65.46% ( -0.15)	20.85% ( 0.05)	13.68% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 45.4% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.63% (

-0.05)

49.36% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.58% (

-0.04)

71.41% (

0.04)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.7% (

-0.06)

14.29% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.9% (

-0.12)

42.09% (

0.12)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.97% (

0.11)

47.03% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.49% (

0.08)

82.51% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 65.45%

Valencia 13.68%

Draw 20.85%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Valencia
1-0 @ 13.07% 2-0 @ 12.72% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.33% Total : 65.45%	1-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.65% Total : 20.85%	0-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.13% Total : 13.68%