Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 0-1 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.