With only four games left to jump out of the bottom three of the Bundesliga table, Arminia Bielefeld face the tough test of a trip to FC Koln on Saturday.
Following back-to-back defeats, the visitors sit two points off the relegation playoff place and three points adrift of automatic safety, while their hosts have climbed to seventh spot thanks to consecutive wins.
Match preview
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After only narrowly avoiding relegation last season, FC Koln have enjoyed an eye-catching campaign this time around, currently sitting seventh in the German top flight.
They have given their European hopes a major boost in recent weeks, bouncing back from a defeat to sixth-placed Union Berlin with back-to-back wins heading into the weekend.
Steffen Baumgart's side firstly took on Mainz, and, despite trailing 2-0 on the hour mark, they took all three points as Ellyes Skhiri, Dejan Ljubicic and Luca Kilian netted goals to overturn the deficit and seal a 3-2 victory.
Die Giessbocke then travelled to Borussia Monchengladbach last Saturday, with Ljubicic again on the scoresheet alongside Anthony Modeste and Florian Kainz in a 3-1 win, seeing them leapfrog Hoffenheim and move into seventh spot.
Such a position would see them reach the Europa Conference League playoff round if they were to remain in the top seven, while they now sit just a single point behind Union Berlin in the final Europa League place, meaning Baumgart's side will be desperate for another victory to strengthen their claim for a place in a European competition next campaign.
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They welcome an Arminia Bielefeld side looking to keep themselves in the Bundesliga, with the visitors currently sat in the relegation zone.
Die Arminien have had to endure a dismal season in the German top flight, winning just five and losing 14 of their 30 league outings so far, and they head into Saturday in a run of seven games without a victory.
In that time, Frank Kramer's side have managed to earn just a single point, drawing with Stuttgart after four consecutive losses, but they have since gone on to suffer two more defeats, losing 4-0 and 3-0 to Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich respectively.
The poor run of form has seen Die Arminien fall into the automatic drop zone, now trailing Stuttgart in the relegation playoff place by two points and 15th-placed Hertha Berlin by three points.
While they are not yet condemned to relegation, Kramer's men do have just four games left to bridge the gap, making it vital that they end the season with an improved run of results to stand a chance.
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Team News
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On the back of consecutive victories, Koln could deploy an unchanged starting XI on Saturday, with Sebastian Andersson and Kingsley Schindler likely remaining the only absentees.
Anthony Modeste will continue to lead the line, having hit his 16th league goal of the season last time out.
Dejan Ljubicic is another threat going forward, having found the net in each of the last two games, with Florian Kainz again set to start on the opposite flank.
Arminia Bielefeld's squad took several hits in the Bayern Munich defeat, as midfielder Fabian Kunze and defender Jacob Laursen both forced off due to injuries, and they should miss out alongside Cedric Brunner, Florian Kruger and Fabian Klos.
George Bello and Sebastian Vasiliadis could feature at the back and in midfield respectively from the outset as a result, while winger Robin Hack will be vying for a start.
Japanese winger Masaya Okugawa has been the star man in attack this season, netting eight goals in 29 league appearances.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Ehizibue, Hubers, Kilian, Hector; Skhiri, Ozcan; Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Ramos, Pieper, Nilsson, Bello; Vasiliadis, Prietl; Okugawa, Serra, Hack; Wimmer
We say: FC Koln 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Given the contrasting form of the two teams, we can only envisage a home victory on Saturday.
With momentum on their side and the chance to climb into the top six, Baumgart's side should have enough to sweep the strugglers aside on home turf.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 69.55%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 12.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.7%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 0-1 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for FC Koln in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for FC Koln.
