J1 League | Gameweek 16
May 11, 2025 at 5.05am UK
Iwagin Stadium

Shimizu S-Pulse
2 - 2
Machida Zelvia

Kitagawa (66' pen., 66' pen.), Tanque (84', 84')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Nishimura (21', 21'), Hayashi (66', 66')
Coverage of the J1 League clash between Shimizu S-Pulse and Machida Zelvia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Shimizu S-Pulse

All competitions
Last Game: Reysol 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse
Tuesday, May 6 at 8am in J1 League

Machida Zelvia

All competitions
Last Game: Machida Zelvia 1-2 Kyoto Sanga
Wednesday, May 7 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 (10.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.

Result
Shimizu S-PulseDrawMachida Zelvia
31.58% (0.19 0.19)28.51% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)39.91% (-0.184 -0.18)
Both teams to score 45.69% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.44% (0.064999999999998 0.06)60.55% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.34% (0.048999999999999 0.05)80.66% (-0.047999999999988 -0.05)
Shimizu S-Pulse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.94% (0.17399999999999 0.17)35.06% (-0.172 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.2% (0.183 0.18)71.8% (-0.181 -0.18)
Machida Zelvia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.35% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)29.64% (0.077000000000002 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.31% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)65.69% (0.092000000000013 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Shimizu S-Pulse 31.58%
    Machida Zelvia 39.91%
    Draw 28.5%
Shimizu S-PulseDrawMachida Zelvia
1-0 @ 10.89% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 6.94% (0.034 0.03)
2-0 @ 5.71% (0.04 0.04)
3-1 @ 2.43% (0.024 0.02)
3-0 @ 2% (0.024 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.48% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 31.58%
1-1 @ 13.24%
0-0 @ 10.39% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.22% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 28.5%
0-1 @ 12.63% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
1-2 @ 8.05% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.68% (-0.050999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.26% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.11% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.71% (0.002 0)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-4 @ 0.95% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 39.91%