Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 (10.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.