J1 League | Gameweek 5
Mar 30, 2024 at 6am UK
Machida Gion Stadium (Tokyo)

Machida Zelvia
3 - 1
Sagan Tosu

Fujimoto (5', 5'), Oh (54', 54', 57', 57')
Suzuki (45'), Suzuki (45')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Ryan (34', 34')
Harada (10'), Harada (10'), Naganuma (51'), Naganuma (51'), Yamazaki (85'), Yamazaki (85')
Coverage of the J1 League clash between Machida Zelvia and Sagan Tosu.

Form, Standings, Stats

Machida Zelvia

All competitions
Last Game: Consadole 1-2 Machida Zelvia
Saturday, March 16 at 5am in J1 League

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 0-2 Cerezo
Saturday, March 16 at 6am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 49.69%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 25.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Machida Zelvia would win this match.

Result
Machida ZelviaDrawSagan Tosu
49.69% (0.172 0.17)24.58% (0.017999999999997 0.02)25.73% (-0.19 -0.19)
Both teams to score 53.85% (-0.228 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.62% (-0.219 -0.22)48.38% (0.218 0.22)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.48% (-0.199 -0.2)70.52% (0.19799999999999 0.2)
Machida Zelvia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.5% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)19.5% (0.016000000000002 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.63% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)51.37% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.9% (-0.26899999999999 -0.27)33.1% (0.269 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.3% (-0.3 -0.3)69.7% (0.29899999999999 0.3)
Score Analysis
    Machida Zelvia 49.69%
    Sagan Tosu 25.73%
    Draw 24.57%
Machida ZelviaDrawSagan Tosu
1-0 @ 10.55% (0.09 0.09)
2-1 @ 9.54% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.63% (0.068999999999999 0.07)
3-1 @ 5.2% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 4.7% (0.034999999999999 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.87% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.12% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.92% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.17% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 49.69%
1-1 @ 11.66% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.46% (0.058 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.27% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.57%
0-1 @ 7.14% (0.012 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.45% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.94% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.38% (-0.033 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.94% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.45% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 25.73%