Club Friendlies 3
Jul 17, 2026 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Tynecastle Park
  • Amadou Ba-Sy 17' goal
  • Amadou Ba-Sy 34' goal
  • goal Sergio Camello 60'

Hearts vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hearts

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 14, 2026 7.30pm
Arbroath 1 - 2 Hearts

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.26% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 19.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (11.04%) and 2-0 (10.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.

Result

Hearts 56.2% (-0.10)
Draw 24.26%
Rayo Vallecano 19.54% (+0.10)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.74% (+0.13)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.03% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 25.97% (-0.09)
Over 2.5 49.16% (+0.14)
Under 2.5 50.84% (-0.14)
Over 3.5 26% (+0.11)
Under 3.5 74.01% (-0.10)
Over 4.5 14.62% (+0.06)
Under 4.5 85.38% (-0.07)

First Half Winner

Hearts 36.59%
Draw 44.18%
Rayo Vallecano 19.23%

Team To Score First

Hearts 58.44% (-0.04)
No Goal 6.91% (-0.04)
Rayo Vallecano 34.65% (+0.06)

Corners

Over 8 65.53% (-0.04)
Equal 8 10.94% (+0.01)
Under 8 23.54% (+0.06)
Over 9 53.61% (-0.05)
Equal 9 11.92%
Under 9 34.47% (+0.04)
Over 10.5 41.8% (-0.06)
Under 10.5 58.2% (+0.06)

Hearts Goals

Over 1.5 50.14% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 49.86% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 23.01%
Under 2.5 76.99%
Over 3.5 8.46%
Under 3.5 91.54%

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 55.92% (+0.15)
Under 0.5 44.08% (-0.15)
Over 1.5 21.5% (+0.15)
Under 1.5 78.5% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 6.14% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 93.86% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 1.47% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 98.53% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Hearts 56.21%
Draw 24.26%
Rayo Vallecano 19.53%
Hearts
1-0 @ 12.85% (-0.07)
2-1 @ 11.04% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 10.18% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 5.78% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 5.29%
3-2 @ 2.71% (+0.01)
Other @ 8.36% (-0.01)
Total : 56.21%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.88% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.91% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 4.6% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.1% (+0.02)
Total : 24.26%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 6.21%
1-2 @ 5.24% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 2.81%
1-3 @ 1.49% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.31% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 1.1% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.37% (+0.03)
Total : 19.53%