Club Friendlies 3
Jul 4, 2026 12.00pm
St. Jakob-Park

Basel vs FC Aarau - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Basel

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jun 26, 2026 5.00pm
Rapperswil-Jona 0 - 3 Basel

FC Aarau

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jun 30, 2026 3.00pm
Aarau 1 - 3 St. Gallen II

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Basel win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for FC Aarau has a probability of 37.02% and a draw has a probability of 23.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (5.56%) and 2-0 (4.77%). The likeliest FC Aarau win is 1-2 (8.43%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.68%).

Result

Basel 39.53% (-0.22)
Draw 23.46% (+0.04)
FC Aarau 37.02% (+0.20)

Both Teams to Score: 

66.48% (+0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.04% (+0.10)
Under 1.5 14.96% (-0.09)
Over 2.5 66.6% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 33.4% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 43.55% (+0.11)
Under 3.5 56.45% (-0.06)
Over 4.5 27.34% (+0.11)
Under 4.5 72.66% (-0.11)

First Half Winner

Basel 31.26% (+0.03)
Draw 37.33% (-0.06)
FC Aarau 31.41% (+0.04)

Team To Score First

Basel 48.5% (-0.03)
No Goal 3.95% (-0.01)
FC Aarau 47.55% (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 68.16% (-0.07)
Equal 8 10.12% (-0.02)
Under 8 21.72% (+0.08)
Over 9 56.95% (-0.03)
Equal 9 11.21% (-0.03)
Under 9 31.84% (+0.06)
Over 10.5 45.58%
Under 10.5 54.42%

Basel Goals

Over 1.5 47.42% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 52.58% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 23.44% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 76.56% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 9.17% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 90.83% (+0.02)

FC Aarau Goals

Over 0.5 73.74% (+0.18)
Under 0.5 26.26% (-0.18)
Over 1.5 45.26% (+0.24)
Under 1.5 54.74% (-0.24)
Over 2.5 22.01% (+0.21)
Under 2.5 77.99% (-0.21)
Over 3.5 8.82% (+0.10)
Under 3.5 91.18% (-0.10)

Score analysis

Basel 39.52%
Draw 23.47%
FC Aarau 37.02%
Basel
2-1 @ 8.62% (-0.05)
1-0 @ 5.56% (-0.06)
2-0 @ 4.77% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 4.72% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.86% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 3.32% (-0.03)
Other @ 8.67% (-0.05)
Total : 39.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.68%
2-2 @ 6.97% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 3.95% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 2.37% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.5% (+0.03)
Total : 23.47%
FC Aarau
1-2 @ 8.43% (+0.03)
0-1 @ 5.46% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 4.52% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.99% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.62% (+0.04)
0-3 @ 2.68% (+0.04)
Other @ 8.32% (+0.09)
Total : 37.02%