Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Aarau win with a probability of 67.74%. A draw had a probability of 18.25% and a win for St. Gallen II had a probability of 14.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Aarau win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 1-0 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%) , while for a St. Gallen II win it was 0-1 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.