Club Friendlies 3
Aug 4, 2026 1.30pm
True BG Stadium

BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

BG Pathum United

All competitions

Aston Villa

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 28, 2026 7.30pm
Aston Villa 2 - 4 Real Sociedad

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a BG Pathum United win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Aston Villa has a probability of 37.1% and a draw has a probability of 24.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a BG Pathum United win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.74%) and 2-0 (5.56%). The likeliest Aston Villa win is 1-2 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.3%).

Result

BG Pathum United 37.96% (-5.87)
Draw 24.94% (-0.09)
Aston Villa 37.1% (+5.97)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.98% (+0.34)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.7% (+0.72)
Under 1.5 21.3% (-0.72)
Over 2.5 56.76% (+1.51)
Under 2.5 43.24% (-1.51)
Over 3.5 34.22% (+1.55)
Under 3.5 65.78% (-1.55)
Over 4.5 19.89% (+1.25)
Under 4.5 80.11% (-1.25)

First Half Winner

BG Pathum United 31.85% (-5.04)
Draw 38.77% (+0.91)
Aston Villa 29.38% (+4.15)

Team To Score First

BG Pathum United 49.78% (-4.43)
No Goal 5.8% (-0.03)
Aston Villa 44.42% (+4.46)

Corners

Over 8 59.62% (-1.89)
Equal 8 11.24% (+0.02)
Under 8 29.14% (+1.86)
Over 9 48.01% (-1.71)
Equal 9 11.62% (-0.17)
Under 9 40.38% (+1.89)
Over 10.5 36.99% (-1.40)
Under 10.5 63.01% (+1.40)

BG Pathum United Goals

Over 1.5 41.11% (-3.83)
Under 1.5 58.89% (+3.83)
Over 2.5 17.93% (-2.38)
Under 2.5 82.07% (+2.38)
Over 3.5 6.49% (-0.96)
Under 3.5 93.51% (+0.96)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5 71.76% (+4.11)
Under 0.5 28.24% (-4.12)
Over 1.5 40.14% (+5.64)
Under 1.5 59.86% (-5.63)
Over 2.5 17.6% (+4.14)
Under 2.5 82.4% (-4.13)
Over 3.5 6.21% (+1.79)
Under 3.5 93.79% (-1.78)

Score analysis

BG Pathum United 37.95%
Draw 24.94%
Aston Villa 37.1%
BG Pathum United
2-1 @ 8.44% (-0.91)
1-0 @ 7.74% (-1.15)
2-0 @ 5.56% (-1.20)
3-1 @ 4.13% (-0.66)
3-2 @ 2.95% (-0.24)
3-0 @ 2.91% (-0.72)
Other @ 6.22% (-1.04)
Total : 37.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.3% (-0.42)
2-2 @ 6.12% (+0.08)
0-0 @ 5.8% (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.45% (+0.18)
Other @ 0.27% (+0.10)
Total : 24.94%
Aston Villa
1-2 @ 8.38% (+0.86)
0-1 @ 7.75% (+0.45)
0-2 @ 5.09% (+0.83)
1-3 @ 4.08% (+0.88)
2-3 @ 3.06% (+0.57)
0-3 @ 2.8% (+0.73)
Other @ 5.94% (+1.70)
Total : 37.1%