Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Al Shabab had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Al Shabab win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.