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FA Cup
Stoke logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round
Feb 8, 2025 at 3pm UK
Britannia Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Stoke
3 - 3
Cardiff

Koumas (42', 46'), Baker (58' pen.)
Gibson (90+7')
FT
(aet)
Colwill (8', 68'), Salech (20')
Colwill (88'), O'Dowda (90+8'), Fish (98')
Cardiff win 4-2 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Stoke City and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Hull City 1-2 Stoke
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Championship

Cardiff City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Leeds 7-0 Cardiff
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Championship

We say: Stoke City 1-1 Cardiff City (a.e.t, Stoke to win on penalties)

 An encounter as close as the Championship table would suggest should be on the cards on Saturday, where Stoke may not be best-placed to capitalise on Cardiff's recent Leeds collapse given their lack of output at home. The lottery of penalties may be required to separate the two second-tier sides, where the Potters have our vote to maximise home advantage, lift their Cardiff curse and progress to round five. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 45.03%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 28.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%).

Result
Stoke CityDrawCardiff City
45.03% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01) 26.22% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 28.75% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Both teams to score 51.06% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.86% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)53.14% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.29% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)74.71% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.48%23.52%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.44% (0.0010000000000048 0)57.56% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.75% (0.007000000000005 0.01)33.25% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.14% (0.009999999999998 0.01)69.86% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Stoke City 45.02%
    Cardiff City 28.75%
    Draw 26.22%
Stoke CityDrawCardiff City
1-0 @ 11.31%
2-1 @ 9.02% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 8.19% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 4.35%
3-0 @ 3.95%
3-2 @ 2.4%
4-1 @ 1.58%
4-0 @ 1.43%
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 45.02%
1-1 @ 12.46%
0-0 @ 7.82% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.0010000000000003 0)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 26.22%
0-1 @ 8.61%
1-2 @ 6.86% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-3 @ 2.52% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 1.82% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.74%
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 28.75%

How you voted: Stoke vs Cardiff

Stoke City
70.0%
Cardiff City
30.0%
50
Head to Head
Dec 14, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 21
Stoke
2-2
Cardiff
Moran (17'), Gibson (90+5')
Moran (24'), Wilmot (65'), Gibson (66'), Famiwuya (67')
El Ghazi (32'), B (73' og.)
Ralls (43')
> Preview
Feb 24, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 34
Cardiff
2-1
Stoke
Etete (5'), Grant (32')
Ng (40'), Siopis (51'), Ralls (76'), Goutas (83')
Bae (41')
Thompson (45+2'), Burger (73')
> Preview
Nov 4, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 15
Stoke
0-0
Cardiff
McNally (42')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 44
Cardiff
1-1
Stoke
Kaba (29')
Laurent (16')
> Preview
Dec 10, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 22
Stoke
2-2
Cardiff
Campbell (11'), Delap (18')
Wintle (6'), Robinson (58')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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