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Europa League

Europa League | League Stage
Jan 23, 2025 at 8pm UK
Stadions Daugava
Ajax

RFS
1 - 0
Ajax

Marhiev (78')
Marhiev (37'), Savaļnieks (55'), Panic (67')
FT(HT: 0-0)

van den Boomen (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Rigas Futbola Skola and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rigas Futbola Skola

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Last Game: M. Tel Aviv 2-1 RFS
Thursday, December 12 at 8pm in Europa League
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Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Heerenveen 0-2 Ajax
Sunday, January 19 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.89%. A win for Rigas Futbola Skola had a probability of 22.11% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.91%) and 0-1 (7.62%). The likeliest Rigas Futbola Skola win was 2-1 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.

Result
Rigas Futbola SkolaDrawAjax
22.11% (-3.188 -3.19)20.99% (-0.34 -0.34)56.89% (3.528 3.53)
Both teams to score 61.86% (-2.868 -2.87)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.16% (-1.996 -2)35.84% (1.996 2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.07% (-2.231 -2.23)57.93% (2.231 2.23)
Rigas Futbola Skola Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.72% (-3.598 -3.6)29.28% (3.598 3.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.76% (-4.65 -4.65)65.24% (4.651 4.65)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.46% (0.37700000000001 0.38)12.54% (-0.376 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.43% (0.778 0.78)38.57% (-0.778 -0.78)
Score Analysis
    Rigas Futbola Skola 22.11%
    Ajax 56.9%
    Draw 20.99%
Rigas Futbola SkolaDrawAjax
2-1 @ 5.75% (-0.523 -0.52)
1-0 @ 4.51% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-0 @ 2.77% (-0.295 -0.3)
3-2 @ 2.45% (-0.464 -0.46)
3-1 @ 2.35% (-0.489 -0.49)
3-0 @ 1.13% (-0.255 -0.26)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 22.11%
1-1 @ 9.36% (0.135 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.97% (-0.45 -0.45)
0-0 @ 3.67% (0.354 0.35)
3-3 @ 1.69% (-0.293 -0.29)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 20.99%
1-2 @ 9.72% (0.276 0.28)
0-2 @ 7.91% (0.967 0.97)
0-1 @ 7.62% (0.834 0.83)
1-3 @ 6.73% (0.284 0.28)
0-3 @ 5.48% (0.737 0.74)
2-3 @ 4.13% (-0.248 -0.25)
1-4 @ 3.49% (0.195 0.2)
0-4 @ 2.84% (0.418 0.42)
2-4 @ 2.15% (-0.097 -0.1)
1-5 @ 1.45% (0.101 0.1)
0-5 @ 1.18% (0.188 0.19)
Other @ 4.19%
Total : 56.9%

How you voted: RFS vs Ajax

Rigas Futbola Skola
5.9%
Draw
12.9%
Ajax
81.2%
85