Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 21.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Lyon win it was 1-0 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.