Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.