Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 65.21%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for NK Istra 1961 had a probability of 13.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.67%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.91%), while for a NK Istra 1961 win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.