Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 0-1 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Hajduk Split in this match.