Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HNK Rijeka win with a probability of 67.11%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for NK Lokomotiva had a probability of 13.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a HNK Rijeka win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.59%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.31%), while for a NK Lokomotiva win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HNK Rijeka would win this match.