Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 50.61%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.24%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 2-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.