Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.48%) and 1-3 (5.13%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.