Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 78.99%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 8.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.86%), while for a Spartak Trnava win it was 1-2 (2.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.