Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 63.28%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.91%) and 1-2 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Spartak Trnava win it was 1-0 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.