UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry (Londonderry))

Derry
1 - 0
Tobol

(1-1 on aggregate)

Patching (15' pen.)
O'Reilly (69'), Duffy (90+5')

FT
(aet)

Deble (14'), Kairov (72'), Asrankulov (86'), Rogac (104'), Mullen (116'), Mladovic (118')

Tobol win 6-5 on penalties

Coverage of the Conference League Third Qualifying Round clash between Derry City and Tobol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derry City

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Derry 3-0 Drogheda
Sunday, August 13 at 6.30pm in League of Ireland Premier

Goals
for

Tobol

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Tobol 1-0 Derry
Thursday, August 10 at 3pm in Europa Conference League

	Team	Goals scored	Avg per game	Top scorer
1	Shamrock	50	1.85	Burke
2	St Patrick's	49	1.81	Forrester
3	Bohemians	41	1.52	Afolabi
4	Dundalk	40	1.48	Hoban
5	Derry	36	1.38	McEneff
6	Shelbourne	30	1.11	Moylan
7	Sligo	30	1.11	Mata
8	Drogheda	29	1.07	Draper
9	Cork City	28	1.04	Keating
10	UCD	15	0.58	Kinsella-Bishop

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 71.86%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Tobol had a probability of 9.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.05%) and 3-0 (10.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.59%), while for a Tobol win it was 0-1 (4.12%).

Result
Derry City	Draw	Tobol
71.86% ( 0.83)	18.49% ( -0.45)	9.65% ( -0.38)

Both teams to score 40.05% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.58% (

0.78)

49.42% (

-0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.54% (

0.7)

71.46% (

-0.7)

Derry City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.59% (

0.47)

12.41% (

-0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.69% (

0.97)

38.31% (

-0.97)

Tobol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.73% (

-0.3)

54.27% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.56% (

-0.18)

87.44% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Derry City 71.85%

Tobol 9.65%

Draw 18.49%

Derry City	Draw	Tobol
2-0 @ 14.66% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 14.05% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.1) 5-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.7% Total : 71.85%	1-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.42% Total : 18.49%	0-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.65% Total : 9.65%