Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a KuPS win with a probability of 44.21%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Derry City had a probability of 27.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a KuPS win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Derry City win it was 0-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.