Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Zrinjski Mostar had a probability of 8.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.85%) and 3-0 (10.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.8%), while for a Zrinjski Mostar win it was 0-1 (3.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.