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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 24.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 24.68% | 24.52% | 50.8% |
| Both teams to score 53.01% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.01% | 48.99% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.92% | 71.07% |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.69% | 34.31% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.98% | 71.01% |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.71% | 19.29% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.96% | 51.04% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 1-0 @ 7.08% 2-1 @ 6.23% 2-0 @ 3.79% 3-1 @ 2.22% 3-2 @ 1.83% 3-0 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.18% Total : 24.68% | 1-1 @ 11.65% 0-0 @ 6.62% 2-2 @ 5.13% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.52% | 0-1 @ 10.89% 1-2 @ 9.59% 0-2 @ 8.96% 1-3 @ 5.26% 0-3 @ 4.92% 2-3 @ 2.81% 1-4 @ 2.16% 0-4 @ 2.02% 2-4 @ 1.16% Other @ 3.03% Total : 50.79% |