Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 56.64%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 22.4% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.76%) and 0-1 (7.45%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (5.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.