Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 79.7%. A draw had a probability of 11.9% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 8.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-1 with a probability of 8.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (7.97%) and 2-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.75%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (2.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.