Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 57.27%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 20.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.