Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 1-2 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.