Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 65.09%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 16.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 1-0 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.