Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 52.64%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 24.39% and a draw had a probability of 22.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (6.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.