Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 0-1 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.