Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Nottingham Forest Under-21s had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.