Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Nottingham Forest Under-21s had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morecambe would win this match.

Result
Morecambe	Draw	Nottingham Forest Under-21s
46.18% ( -0.04)	23.52% ( -0.05)	30.3% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 60.97% (

0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.43% (

0.26)

40.57% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.04% (

0.27)

62.95% (

-0.27)

Morecambe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.15% (

0.08)

17.85% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.39% (

0.15)

48.61% (

-0.15)

Nottingham Forest Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.22% (

0.18)

25.77% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.28% (

0.24)

60.72% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Morecambe 46.18%

Nottingham Forest Under-21s 30.3%

Draw 23.51%

Morecambe	Draw	Nottingham Forest Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.93% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 6.83% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.32% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.78% Total : 46.18%	1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.51%	1-2 @ 7.29% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.84% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.43% Total : 30.3%