Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 56.36%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 23.83% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.89%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley Town	Draw	Aston Villa Under-21s
56.36% ( 0.34)	19.8% ( 0.06)	23.83% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 68.87% (

-0.74)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

72.2% (

-0.74)

27.8% (

0.74)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

51.51% (

-0.93)

48.49% (

0.92)

Crawley Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.88% (

-0.15)

10.12% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.7% (

-0.35)

33.3% (

0.34)

Aston Villa Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.62% (

-0.69)

23.37% (

0.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.65% (

-1.02)

57.35% (

1.02)

Score Analysis

Crawley Town 56.36%

Aston Villa Under-21s 23.83%

Draw 19.8%

Crawley Town	Draw	Aston Villa Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.2) 1-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.02) 4-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.06) 5-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.81% Total : 56.36%	1-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 2.37% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.58% Total : 19.8%	1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.85% Total : 23.83%