Charlton Athletic
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2023 at 7pm UK
The Valley

Charlton
4 - 2
Aston Villa U21s

Kirk (4'), Leaburn (29' pen., 45+2'), Watson (39')
Watson (34')
FT(HT: 4-0)
Moore (73'), Alcock (81')
Iroegbunam (42')
Coverage of the EFL Trophy Group Stage clash between Charlton Athletic and Aston Villa Under-21s.

Form, Standings, Stats

Charlton Athletic

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Charlton 2-2 Blackpool
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One

Aston Villa Under-21s

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Aston Villa U21s 2-3 Sunderland U21s
Friday, September 29 at 7pm in Premier League 2 - Div 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 63.81%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 17.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.83%) and 3-1 (7.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for an Aston Villa Under-21s win it was 1-2 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.

Result
Charlton AthleticDrawAston Villa Under-21s
63.81% (-1.189 -1.19)18.46% (0.076000000000001 0.08)17.73% (1.119 1.12)
Both teams to score 63.69% (2.257 2.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.84% (1.779 1.78)30.17% (-1.773 -1.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.61% (2.108 2.11)51.39% (-2.101 -2.1)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.94% (0.22399999999999 0.22)9.06% (-0.217 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.18% (0.52800000000001 0.53)30.82% (-0.52 -0.52)
Aston Villa Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.04% (2.32 2.32)29.97% (-2.313 -2.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.92% (2.706 2.71)66.08% (-2.698 -2.7)
Score Analysis
    Charlton Athletic 63.81%
    Aston Villa Under-21s 17.73%
    Draw 18.46%
Charlton AthleticDrawAston Villa Under-21s
2-1 @ 9.43% (-0.139 -0.14)
2-0 @ 7.83% (-0.637 -0.64)
3-1 @ 7.55% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-0 @ 6.52% (-0.602 -0.6)
3-0 @ 6.27% (-0.442 -0.44)
3-2 @ 4.55% (0.261 0.26)
4-1 @ 4.53% (0.025 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.76% (-0.226 -0.23)
4-2 @ 2.73% (0.183 0.18)
5-1 @ 2.18% (0.033 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.81% (-0.089 -0.09)
5-2 @ 1.31% (0.099 0.1)
4-3 @ 1.1% (0.136 0.14)
Other @ 4.26%
Total : 63.81%
1-1 @ 7.86% (-0.195 -0.2)
2-2 @ 5.68% (0.272 0.27)
0-0 @ 2.72% (-0.28 -0.28)
3-3 @ 1.83% (0.212 0.21)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 18.46%
1-2 @ 4.74% (0.182 0.18)
0-1 @ 3.27% (-0.115 -0.12)
2-3 @ 2.28% (0.243 0.24)
0-2 @ 1.97% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 1.9% (0.186 0.19)
Other @ 3.57%
Total : 17.73%

How you voted: Charlton vs Aston Villa U21s

Charlton Athletic
73.3%
Draw
13.3%
Aston Villa Under-21s
13.3%
15
Head to Head
Nov 30, 2021 7pm
Second Round
Charlton
2-1
Aston Villa U21s
Burstow (15'), Stockley (43' pen.)
Morgan (38')
Thorndike (40')
Philogene-Bidace (88')