Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.59%) and 0-2 (5.71%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 2-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.