Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 38%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 37.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.15%) and 0-2 (5.91%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.