Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.